A nation surrounded by chaos

India is fast becoming a nation surrounded by chaos.

Down south we have Sri Lanka, that is fighting a mortal battle with the separtist organisation LTTE. It looks like that the battle will soon be won by the Sri Lankan army and the LTTE will be eliminated once and for all, but the trouble in Sri Lanka will begin soon after. Freshly annointed with the glory of victory, Sinhali chauvanism will receive an immense boost and if they go back to the bad old days of discriminating against the Tamil, then every thing will start over again and in twenty years time will have another LTTE like organization rising like a phoenix in Sri Lanka.

On our western border, civil war has already broken out between the Taliban and the Pakistani army. Civilian refugees are crowding in make-shift camps. There is no end to the atrocities happening in that god forsaken country -- flogging of girls, beheading policemen, slaying of singers by their own brothers, the list seems endless. Pakistan seems to have taken a ride on a time machine to medieval times.

Bangladesh recently experienced an army revolt with disgruntled soldiers killing their own army officers. The ISI has spread into the social fabric of this country and China too is playing clandestine games there. The steady exodus of Bangladeshis into India is a perennial sore for us, that can have serious political repurcussion.

The last to be added to the list is Nepal. One had thought that with monarchy abolished and Maoists have laid down their guns to take on the reins of the government, this abjectly poor country is well on the road to stability and development. But no, the Maoists have proved that they are not as good at running a coalition government as they are in waging guerrilla war against the state.

With Nepalase Prime Minister Prachanda having resigned in a huff over a difference of opinion with the Nepalese President, the country has been plunged into anarchy again. It looks highly unlikely that sans the Maoists, the other 20 political parties will be able to cobble together a lasting coalition government.

More seriously, with the Maos out of the government, the whole process of developing a new Constitution for the country may be jeopardised.

And if the Maoists decide to pick up their guns again, we will be in for a prolonged spell of blood shed. If the Maoists in Nepal connect up their brethern in Bihar and Jharkhand, we will have one big trouble in our hands.

There is also a danger of the Maoisting falling into the arms of our Chinese friends and that too would be a disaster for Indian diplomacy in Nepal.

And as for India, we have just about managed to escape the unenvious fate of our neighbours. The Mumbai invasion nearly broke our back.

But our acid test will be what happens on May 16. Will we get a stable government in Delhi that would last a full term of five years or will there be prolonged instability and horse-trading instead?

Only a crystal gazer can give a definite answer to that.